MOH Predicts 10,000 Daily Covid-19 Cases By 2nd Week of March If Infectivity Rate Doesn’t Drop

Three weeks have passed since the Movement Control Order (MCO) was implemented and there is still an upward trend in new Covid-19 cases. New infections are at an all-time high with the highest increase of over 5,700 cases last week.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) has predicted that if the rate of infection doesn’t go down, Malaysia could see an increase of 10,000 cases daily in just the second week of March.

The rate of infection is measured by the R0 (pronounced R-naught) value. For example, an R0 value of 1.5 means that one infected person is able to infect 1.5 other people.

As of now (3 February), the R0 value for the whole of Malaysia is at 1.15. In a graph that Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah shared on Twitter, it shows that the MOH’s prediction of 5,000 cases daily in the first week of February came to pass.

In fact, the first time more than 5,000 cases was recorded was on 27 January, which is earlier than what the MOH predicted.

If this upward trend continues in the days to come, Malaysia could see 8,000 cases daily in the first week of March, and if the rate of infection still remains at 1.2, daily increases is predicted to hit the 10,000 mark.

Meanwhile, the infectivity rate for each of the states are as follows.

Just yesterday (2 February), Defence Minster Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced that the MCO implemented nationwide except Sarawak will be extended from 5 to 18 February. A revised set of standard operating procedures (SOP) will be released by the National Security Council (MKN) soon.

Also read: 8 Sabah Villagers Fined For Violating SOP, PDRM Says It’s To “Spread Awareness”