The first move after a US Federal Reserve decision is very often the wrong one. Prices jump, people pile in, and a few minutes later the whole thing reverses as if the market changed its mind halfway through a sentence. Anyone who has traded Fed night from Malaysia has probably watched a perfectly reasonable position get flipped around before they’d even finished reading the statement.
The Fed meets eight times a year, and each decision can shake up the dollar, gold and pretty much every major pair at once. That doesn’t mean you have to sit it out completely, but it does mean going in with a few rules rather than just a gut feeling and a strong cup of teh o.
Know What You’re Walking Into
It doesn’t really matter whether your account is with HFM or anywhere else, because the spike hits every platform at the same moment. What makes the difference is the preparation you’ve done before the announcement, and most of that is surprisingly simple.
- Rule 1: Check the Malaysian Clock
Fed decisions come out at 2 pm New York time, which lands at about 2 am here while the US is on summer time and 3 am once their clocks go back. The press conference follows half an hour later. That’s a brutal hour for anyone with work in the morning, so decide beforehand whether you’re genuinely staying up or just setting an alarm out of habit.
- Rule 2: Find Out What’s Already Expected
Markets usually have a fairly clear idea of whether rates will be cut, raised or left alone, and that view is already baked into prices before the announcement. The real reaction comes from the surprise, whether that’s an unexpected decision, a change in tone or, at some meetings, fresh projections about where rates might go next. Get those two things straight and Fed night stops feeling quite so much like walking into a storm with your eyes closed.
Handling the Spike Itself
This is the part that catches people out. The first few minutes after the decision can be wild, with prices jumping in both directions and spreads widening while everyone scrambles to react at once.
- Rule 3: Let the First Move Settle
It’s a bit like crossing a busy road in KL when the light turns green, where waiting a second or two for that one motorbike that always runs the red usually saves you a lot of trouble. The opening spike is often driven by algorithms reacting to headline words, and it can reverse sharply once humans have actually read the statement. Giving it a few minutes costs you very little.
- Rule 4: Trade Smaller Than You Normally Would
If you do decide to take a position, cut the size well down from your usual amount. Volatility on Fed night can stretch moves far beyond normal, and a stop loss sitting where it usually would might get hit by noise alone. Smaller positions let you give the trade a little more room without risking more money overall. Neither rule is glamorous, honestly, but together they keep a single bad candle from wrecking a whole month.
After the First Wave
Once the initial chaos dies down, things often get more interesting rather than less. The statement is only half the story, and the second half usually arrives a short while later.
- Rule 5: Wait for the Press Conference
The Fed chair’s press conference regularly changes the mood set by the statement, sometimes completely. Picture a trader in Petaling Jaya at 2.40 am who jumped into a dollar rally straight after the decision, only to watch it unwind once the chair starts sounding more cautious than the statement suggested. Waiting until the press conference is over gives you a much clearer picture of what the Fed is really thinking.
And if you’re not up at that hour at all, that’s fine. The ringgit tends to do most of its reacting during the Asian session the next morning anyway, when local banks and businesses are back at their desks.
Conclusion
Fed decision day rewards patience far more than speed. Know the time, know what’s expected, let the first spike burn itself out, keep your size small and listen to the press conference before making up your mind.
None of these rules will guarantee a winning trade, and nobody can promise that. What they can do is stop one chaotic night from undoing weeks of careful work. Sometimes the best trade on Fed night is the one you sleep through.
Also read: Treasury Sec-Gen: M’sian Minimum Wage Hike To RM2,000 Approved, SMEs Given More Time To Adjust
