Let’s hope that this projection would not become a reality and that we as a nation will triumph in our combat against the spread of Covid-19.
Now that we’re at the tail end of a rather disastrous year that is 2020, our outlook is beginning to become brighter now that 2021 is approaching. With various Covid-19 vaccines passing clinical trials worldwide to incredibly positive results, the pandemic may be the thing of the past soon.
However, things may not be as rosy as it seems as based on projections by the United States-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Malaysia’s Covid-19 situation will worsen as we enter into 2021. In case you didn’t know, IHME is an independent population health research centre at UW Medicine and is part of the University of Washington.
Here is their projection for our daily Covid-19 infections for the next four months, up until April 2021:
IHME projected an upward trend in daily Covid-19 infection rate in Malaysia, peaking as high as 6,342 new daily cases on 27 February 2021. Worse, this projection was made with the projected data of vaccine rollout scaled up over 45 days as part of the graph equation. The data also assumed that 95% of Malaysians are using face masks diligently.
It means that even with the assumption that vaccine will be rolled out by the first quarter of next year, our projected Covid-19 daily cases will still continue to be alarmingly high by March 2021.
As of December 2020, a four-digit figure of daily infection rate has become the norm for Malaysia with many equating the Sabah State Election as a catalyst for the jump in cases.
Meanwhile, Malaysia is currently placed number 22 on Bloomberg’s ‘World Covid Resilience Ranking’ which ranks countries for the ‘best and worst places to be” during the Covid-19 pandemic. Previously, we were placed number 29 but we have climbed up the ranking due to news of our Covid-19 vaccine procurement.
However, Malaysia is still behind other Asian countries in the Covid Resilience ranking, including our neighbour Singapore which is placed number 5 in the world. Besides Singapore, our ASEAN neighbours that are placed higher than us are Vietnam and Thailand. New Zealand is currently placed top and interestingly, Bangladesh is placed higher than us at number 20.
Hopefully, the combined effort of the government and the public would make the projection false. This is no time to be complacent and remember to always be diligent against the pandemic. Kita semua adalah front liners!
Also read: Balik Kampung During Christmas Holidays Caused Increase of Covid-19 Cases In Kelantan
